The public has been swamped with misinformation about the growth of the Yellowstone grizzly bear population during the last decade, with some agency officials claiming a doubling of the population in the last handful of years. Using a 3-year running average of the most reliable estimates of females with cubs of the year (based on the Mark-Resight method), Interagency Grizzly Bear Study Team data shows that the population little if at all since around 2002, and almost certainly declined since 2014. A marked stalling of growth occurred in 2007, at the end of period when most of the whitebark pine forests died in the Yellowstone ecosystem.

 

In contrast, grizzly bear mortalities have increased dramatically since roughly 2000, far in excess of anything that can be explained by changes in population size. The most important trend is the substantial increase in mortality that followed hard on the heels of when we lost most whitebark pine in the ecosystem. Grizzly bear conflicts with livestock producers and hunters have surged dramatically since the loss of whitebark pine, which his consistent with a turn by many bears to eating more meat in compensation for loss of pine seeds and cutthroat trout. The increase in hunter-related mortalities has occurred despite a substantial decline in hunters afield. This belies claims on the part of agency personnel that hunters are “behaving better” than in the past.